Posted on Thu 07 December 2023 in Research • Tagged with search, dynamic programming
The earlier model assumed that we wish to maximize the expected value from the decision (“impact”). What if we are interested in maximizing the probability that we are making the right decision. How would the optimal choice change? As before, after asking \(n\) people, we will update the true value …
Posted on Sat 02 December 2023 in Research • Tagged with search, dynamic programming
The earlier musings calculated the expected value under the assumption that we need to decide how many people to ask upfront. Now suppose we can ask people sequentially. That is, we ask one person, and depending on their report can decide to stop or to ask more people, and so …
Posted on Mon 27 November 2023 in Research • Tagged with search, dynamic programming
We like to ask for other’s opinions before embarking on any venture. Is there a way to understand the determinants of how many people should we ask for advice? Below is a “simple” model that might help think through the various drivers.
Suppose we have a single alternative that …
Posted on Sun 08 January 2017 in Research • Tagged with Measurement, R
There is much research that suggests that people dont often get a sudden inspiration, but that they gradually buildup ideas over time. I was interested in one specific piece of this, how can we measure buildup or lack there of. Of course, it is easy to eyeball ideas or to …