Testing many alternatives, with the goal of identifying a single best alternative, can proceed in one of two ways: (i) parallel - where the agent decides on the number of alternatives to examine, and after examining them selects the one that yielded the highest value, or (ii) sequential - where the agent …

Continue reading

The earlier model assumed that we wish to maximize the expected value from the decision (“impact”). What if we are interested in maximizing the probability that we are making the right decision. How would the optimal choice change? As before, after asking \(n\) people, we will update the true value …

Continue reading

The earlier musings calculated the expected value under the assumption that we need to decide how many people to ask upfront. Now suppose we can ask people sequentially. That is, we ask one person, and depending on their report can decide to stop or to ask more people, and so …

Continue reading

We like to ask for other’s opinions before embarking on any venture. Is there a way to understand the determinants of how many people should we ask for advice? Below is a “simple” model that might help think through the various drivers.

Suppose we have a single alternative that …

Continue reading